Bloomberg Analysts See 90% Probability of Having Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval

Bloomberg Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have raised the probability of getting a spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETF approval from the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to 90%. The prediction comes after Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest and 21Shares updated its spot BTC ETF prospectus as requested by the regulator. 

SEC Receives Multiple ETF Applications

The U.S. SEC received a number of spot Bitcoin ETF applications from the likes of BlackRock, Fidelity, WisdomTree, Invesco, Valkyrie, VanEck, and Bitwise a few months ago. The applications brought a glimpse of renewed hope for the crypto industry as the SEC had never approved a spot BTC ETF before. 

After looking at some of their initial filings, the SEC requested that all applicants should add a surveillance-sharing agreement. Popular investment asset management firm BlackRock chose American cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase as its SSA partner and reviewed its application. The other applicants equally listed their SSA partners.

Analysts Increase Odd of Spot BTC ETF Approval 

Considering the reputation and caliber of the firms that indicated interest in a spot Bitcoin ETF, Balchunas and Seyffart had initially assigned a 65% likelihood to the offering going live this year. However, Grayscale bagged a significant victory against the SEC over the rejection of its application to convert its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) to a physically backed ETF. 

This news seemed to change the trajectory of the entire crypto industry and in response to the pivotal legal development, the Bloomberg ETF analysts adjusted their estimate to around 75%. Not too long after, the U.S. SEC decided to postpone the decision of a total of seven proposals for Bitcoin ETFs till sometime in October. 

SEC Postpone Spot Bitcoin ETF Decisions to 2024

In September, the regulator stated that it is “appropriate to designate a longer period within which to issue an order approving or disapproving the proposed rule change so that it has sufficient time to consider the proposed rule change.” Hence, it further postponed a decision on ARK 21Shares spot Bitcoin ETF to 2024. Noteworthy, the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF was supposed to be due by November 11. 

Valkyrie also had its spot BTC ETF application decision postponed by the regulator. All things being equal, a decision from the SEC on the spot Bitcoin ETF applications is expected by January 10th, 2024.