The stock market looks set to dip lower after Monday’s glorious relief rally. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) futures were down 0.2% in the premarket session.
Does last week’s rally have the strength or is it just a dead cat bounce? Credit Suisse says investors have ‘no faith’ in the latest stock market bounce.
The Dow has jumped 20% from last week’s bottom, but analysts warn this is a classic dead cat bounce. ‘There’s no faith in this rally,’ said Credit Suisse strategist Mandy Xu. She thinks traders are simply using this opportunity to reposition themselves.
Investor sentiment remains extremely cautious. In the options market, investors have taken advantage of the bounce by resetting hedges, rather than adding to longs.
Despite promising factory data out of China, there is nothing bullish about the economic backdrop right now. A possible 32% of Americans face unemployment as the virus continues to ravage U.S. cities. The stock market’s biggest buy pressure has vanished, volatility is still near record highs, and oil hovers at 20 year lows.
Dow futures lower despite strong China data
Dow futures contracts initially jumped 1% on news that China’s factories returned to growth in March. But the rally faded quickly with DJIA futures currently down 43 points or 0.19%.
The stock market’s biggest buyer has vanished
The biggest buyers of shares are… the companies themselves. Companies bought more than $2 trillion of their own stock over the last three years, making them the biggest buyer on the market.
That buying demand has vanished. Goldman Sachs explains:
Buyback activity will slow dramatically, both for political and practical reasons. First, politicians are denouncing repurchases given the impending recession. Second, from a practical perspective, as revenues evaporate firms will be looking to preserve cash.
McDonald’s, Boeing, AT&T, Nordstrom, JP Morgan, and Chase have all suspended their buyback programs. It’s hard to see this rally recapture its highs with the biggest buyer out of the market.
Unemployment is about to explode
Last week’s 3.3 million jobless claims was already a record. But things will get worse. A report from the St. Louis Federal Reserve estimates a total of 47 million unemployed before this is over. That’s 32% of the population, pushing the country into Great Depression numbers.
These are very large numbers by historical standards, but this is a rather unique shock that is unlike any other experienced by the U.S. economy in the last 100 years – St. Louis Fed economist Miguel Faria-e-Castro.
Dow Jones Futures can’t recover until volatility subsides
There’s another strong indicator that this rally is nothing but a head fake: the CBOE volatility index (VIX). The index just racked up ten-straight days above 60 – longer than any stretch during the 2008 crisis.
BTIG analyst Julian Emanuel said stocks may retest the low again before volatility calms. And only when it subsides will we see a sustained bull market emerge.
While the S&P 500 rallied 20%+ from its low during the week, VIX remained stubbornly elevated along with stock implied correlations… True bull markets tend to be low volatility and uncorrelated
Don’t read too much into the China numbers
Today’s stock market bounce is powered by surprisingly strong numbers from China’s factory output. It’s a positive development and shows light at the end of the tunnel. Eli Lee of Bank of Singapore explains:
The Chinese government is trying to project strength at this point in time to show that they are going back to business and their economy is on a strong footing.
However, this bounce could be short-lived. Lee sees a longer recovery in China as demand from the U.S. and Europe drops off in the coming months.
I think over the longer term the market contour of this crisis for China markets is more likely to be a W or a U rather than a V shape. China is still very dependent on international demand for its goods. If the rest of the world falters in terms of economic growth, then it should prove to be quite difficult for the Chinese as well.