Odds of Bitcoin ETF Approval Surge Following Grayscale’s Victory

James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, prominent ETF analysts at Bloomberg, have adjusted their estimates in response to this pivotal legal development. Previously, they had assigned a 65% likelihood of a spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETF launching within the year. 

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However, with the Grayscale legal victory in mind, they have now raised their odds to an impressive 75% (95% by the end of 2024), indicating greater confidence in the product’s potential emergence.

Court Ruling Exceeds Analysts’ Expectations

The court ruling, in relation to Grayscale’s Bitcoin approval against the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), has served as a critical factor in shaping Seyffart and Balchunas’ elevated confidence levels. 

The way the court handled the Grayscale case has exceeded expectations, leaving the regulatory body with what has been described as “very little wiggle room” for the SEC, according to the analysts.

This revision of estimates signifies a growing belief that the path to a regulated spot Bitcoin ETF has become considerably clearer following the Grayscale victory. The implications of such a product cannot be overstated.

Grayscale’s Legal Victory

The court’s judgment was based primarily on its criticism of the SEC’s uneven regulation of spot and futures-based Bitcoin ETFs. The proposed Grayscale Bitcoin ETF shared significant similarities with already-approved Bitcoin futures ETFs, not only in terms of the underlying assets but also in surveillance sharing agreements. 

The court did not hold back, labeling the SEC’s denial of Grayscale’s proposal as “arbitrary and capricious.” This bold stance by the court has raised questions about the SEC’s regulatory approach and its potential consequences for the crypto ecosystem.

The immediate aftermath of the court’s decision was a remarkable 5.4% surge in Bitcoin’s value, propelling it to $27,450. This swift price movement was attributed to the narrowing of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) discount to its net asset value, which shrank from a significant -25% to a more manageable -17%. 

Deadlines for Pending BTC Approvals

As the crypto community closely watches the aftermath of Grayscale’s legal victory against the SEC, another significant event is looming on the horizon.

Deadlines for crucial decisions by the SEC regarding Bitcoin ETF applications are set to fall between September 1 and September 4. A flurry of anticipation surrounds these deadlines, with industry experts and analysts forecasting potential delays in the wake of the recent court ruling.

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