Ripple vs SEC: John Deaton Predicts Less than 3% Outright Win for SEC

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As the case between Ripple Labs and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) progresses, pro-XRP lawyer John Deaton recently stated that he believes the SEC’s chances of success are “less than 3%”.

On the other hand, Deaton revealed in a recent episode of the Good Morning Crypto Podcast that there is a 25% likelihood that presiding US District Judge Torres will decide in Ripple’s favor. Notably, Deaton believes that the Ripple vs SEC case would most likely result in a court ruling because a settlement between both parties is extremely unlikely.

A ‘Splitting Baby’ Ruling

Additionally, Deaton gives a 50% possibility of a “splitting the baby” ruling. This type of finding would result in a compromise or partial triumph for both Ripple and the SEC. It is possible that some portions of the SEC’s case could be rejected or weakened, while others will be upheld.

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Following the release of the Hinman documents, which include internal SEC messages relating to a 2018 speech given by former SEC Director William Hinman, there is a possibility that crypto may be able to convert from securities to commodities.

Deaton also expressed his confidence that XRP will eventually be ruled not to be a security, even if presiding U.S. District Judge Torres rules against Ripple. He argues that the nature of secondary market sales of XRP supports this view.

A Proposed Timeline for the Ripple vs SEC Ruling

Furthermore, Deaton drew attention to the timeline of the ongoing Ripple-SEC lawsuit, suggesting that Judge Torres will likely reach a final decision before September 30, 2023. Deaton highlighted the “six-month list” that district Judges must file to Congress, which outlines pending summary judgments that have exceeded six months of consideration. 

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For Ripple executives, including CEO Brad Garlinghouse, the anticipation of an end to the legal proceedings has been long-standing. They have expressed confidence in the company’s position and have anticipated a favorable outcome.

Speculations Regarding Potential IPO

Meanwhile, rumors about a potential initial public offering (IPO) by Ripple have been circulating in the crypto community. An IPO would involve Ripple’s transition from a private company to a publicly traded one, offering shares to investors in the traditional stock market.

The rumors come following a Tweet from Fox Business journalist Eleanor Terrett, highlighting that Ripple held a “road show” where it visited with underwriters and other investors to gauge interest in a prospective public offering.

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