Summary
After traders got caught in a bear trap at $174, which corresponded with the 23.6 percent Fibonacci level, Solana (SOL) prices fell.
The bulls have been attempting to overcome the decline by buying into it, with a target of $150 for SOL price action.
This most certainly has squeezed a few bears out of their positions, as well as giving bulls an opportunity to close the current selloff.
The price of the Salana has been heading south for the past week. This past Sunday and Monday, bulls attempted to break out of their downward trend, which had been in effect for weeks. Bulls were able to defend the 50% Fibonacci level at $121.67 by repelling off that level with price action bouncing off it and technically forming a double bottom.
Solana price chart by TradingView
Bulls were able to break above the 38.2% Fibonacci level and also above the monthly R1 resistance level of $150 during the advance up. With stops placed just above $150 by some intermediate bulls and their positions concealed just below it, some bull stops have undoubtedly been taken, as well as a few bears being locked out of their
As the price continues to drop, it becomes increasingly difficult for those that have been stopped out to return. They will not risk being stopped out at the same levels again. They will keep off any short positions, which depletes volume on the downswing.
With Solana bulls sensing an opportunity, look for a retest of the R1 monthly resistance level at $150. This time, there will be minimal resistance because many of the sellers would have already departed this area. Bulls should be able to go to $174.32, or the 23.6 percent Fibonacci level, now that so many traders are “out” or were locked out of their positions.
Bulls should be able to blast past the 23.6 percent Fibonacci level because there is no physical stop-loss orders remaining near this level (the previous day’s high).
If the recent rise in upward momentum turns out to be sustainable, then the bulls have a good chance
The current market situation, with the market in doubt, may give the bears another victory and push price movement back below the 50% Fibonacci level, and deeper the $121.67 mark.
If this occurs, and the price is able to successfully defend $121.67 (the previous day’s low), then we may see a rally back up to the beginning of trade Sunday or Monday’s high of $150.
But if there is no further downward momentum on increasing volume, which would be evidence that the bears are losing steam, then bulls will need to work hard to push the price above $150.
Keep in mind if there is any evidence of upward momentum (confirmed by high volume) and the RSI is no longer below 50, then this would provide strong evidence that the bears are losing steam.
We shall see how things play out in the coming week.
The Solana price has been in a persistent bearish trend this month. On September 9th, SOL/USD reached a high of approximately $215, after having rallied strongly during the first few days of September.
The price plummeted over the next few days, settling as low as $120 on September 21st. A strong reversal was triggered by this movement, with several lower lows and highs established during the previous weeks. The most recent major swing low at $120 was set on September 21st, followed by a reaction to $150, where another lower high was established.
The price then reacted to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $130, before hovering around this level for several days. A few trading opportunities were presented in this region, with an attempted breakout on September 25th and a shallow correction to test support at $130 on September 27th.
The trend continued towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $121.67, before an explosive move occurred towards the end of the week, with a double top around $150 set on September 30th.
After that, SOL/USD dropped steadily, with two minor declines to $130. Overall, we expect Solana’s price to fall next week as a result of this price action development, with the $120 support as the closest objective.
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