Bitcoin Future Hinges on Liquidity, Not Just Politics, Says Lyn Alden

Bitcoin may still be on track to end 2025 above its current price, but not without some geopolitical hurdles along the way. Macroeconomist Lyn Alden believes the world’s leading cryptocurrency would have been poised for even greater gains if it weren’t for U.S. President Donald Trump’s unexpected tariff announcement earlier this year.

Speaking with Natalie Brunell on the Coin Stories podcast on April 17, Alden said she remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s trajectory, predicting a year-end rally despite short-term volatility. “Before all this tariff kerfuffle, I would have had a higher price target,” she noted. “My guess is that we end up higher at the end of the year than we are now, at least.”

At press time, Bitcoin trades around $84,950, according to CoinMarketCap. Alden’s cautious optimism underscores how macroeconomic forces—especially global liquidity trends—continue to exert outsized influence on digital asset performance.

Liquidity Could Unleash the Bulls

While policy shifts like tariffs introduce friction, Alden emphasized that the real game-changer could be a sudden liquidity event. If the U.S. bond market were to falter, forcing the Federal Reserve into interventions like yield curve control or aggressive quantitative easing, Bitcoin could surge past current projections.

“Massive liquidity unlocks are what push Bitcoin toward its more aggressive upside scenarios,” she explained, suggesting that traditional financial disruptions might ironically fuel Bitcoin’s next big move.

Alden also touched on Bitcoin’s unique trading rhythm. “Because it trades 24/7, if people are worried about how things are going to open on Monday, some pools of capital can sell their Bitcoin on a Sunday and prepare,” Alden said.

 That constant availability, she added, amplifies volatility during traditional finance’s “freak-out” moments.

Bitcoin as a Liquidity Barometer, Not Just a Risk Asset

More than just a volatile tech play, Alden positions Bitcoin as a high-fidelity reflection of global liquidity. In a September research note, she found that Bitcoin followed the direction of global M2 money supply 83% of the time over 12 months—outperforming gold, stocks, and other assets in liquidity correlation.

Looking ahead, Alden drew parallels to the 2003–2007 cycle, where a weakening U.S. dollar and rising flows into commodities and emerging markets left U.S. stocks behind. A similar global macro environment could, in her view, set the stage for Bitcoin to outperform, even if Nasdaq margins suffer.

In Alden’s eyes, Bitcoin’s fate is tied less to headlines and more to the unseen tides of global capital.