Bitcoin Moves to $117K as Fed Decision Looms

Bitcoin has just broken out of its stiff resistance around $116,000 but it needs a daily close above this level to confirm fresh bullish momentum, Bitfinex stated recently.

The cryptocurrency has cooled since its August 14 all-time high of $124,100. Many recent buyers entered the market when prices were between $108,000 and $116,000, creating a cost basis that now acts as a ceiling. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was changing hands at about $116,300, according to CoinMarketCap.

Rate Cut Could Shift Market Mood

Investors are closely watching the U.S. Federal Reserve, which will announce its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 96.1% probability of a 25-basis-point cut — the first rate reduction of the year. Lower rates generally benefit risk-on assets like Bitcoin by making traditional investments such as bonds less attractive.

Opinions remain split on how the market will react. Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee predicts a “monster move” for both Bitcoin and Ether over the next three months if the Fed cuts rates. Others are less optimistic. 

Independent crypto analyst Ted argued on X that BTC could dip to $104,000 before recovering, or even fall to $92,000 before surging to a new record. Analysts also caution that if traders have already priced in the cut, Bitcoin might still slide after the announcement.

Q4 History Favors Bulls

A second potential catalyst arrives with the start of the fourth quarter on October 1. Data from CoinGlass shows Q4 has historically been Bitcoin’s strongest period, averaging an 85% return since 2013. This seasonal trend, combined with a dovish Fed, could provide the spark needed to break through resistance.

Bitfinex added that long-term holder confidence remains intact. The early-September dip to $107,400 was driven largely by short-term traders who bought during the February–May correction and took profits on the recent bounce. “This dynamic suggests meaningful headwinds for further upside momentum,” the report noted.

For now, the market mood is neutral, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index posting a score of 53 today. Traders are watching both the Fed’s decision and the seasonal shift into Q4 for signs of Bitcoin’s next big move.