Bitcoin Outlook Strengthens as Researcher Points to Major Market Disconnect

Bitcoin may be positioned for a substantial rebound, according to a new assessment from a leading digital-asset analyst. Bitwise Europe’s head of research, André Dragosch, said on Friday that the current price of the world’s largest cryptocurrency does not reflect the broader economic landscape heading into the next two years.

Dragosch compared today’s setup to March 2020, when global panic at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic pushed Bitcoin from roughly $8,000 to below $5,000 before it began a historic recovery. In a post on X, he described the present market as one of the few moments in recent years where the potential return far outweighs the perceived downside.

Bitcoin Seen Mirroring Early-Pandemic Dynamics

According to Dragosch, Bitcoin is currently trading as though the global economy is headed toward a downturn. He noted that the asset appears to be factoring in the weakest growth expectations since 2022, a period marked by strict monetary tightening from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the shock of the FTX collapse.

“Bitcoin is essentially pricing in a recession-style environment,” he said, adding that the market has already absorbed much of the negative news that dominated headlines earlier this year. His comments follow reassurance from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who stated on Sunday that the country is not at risk of entering a recession in 2026.

Despite earlier optimism, Bitcoin’s price action has disappointed many traders. After setting a new all-time high of $125,100 on October 5, the asset fell sharply during the $19 billion liquidation event on October 10. The decline comes after President Donald Trump announced 100% tariffs on Chinese goods.

Sentiment became worse in mid-November when Bitcoin fell below $100,000 for the first time in months. It briefly dipped under $90,000 on November 20 before recovering above the key level soon after.

Analysts Expect Growth to Recover

Dragosch believes the global economy may regain momentum as the effects of earlier monetary support continue to work through financial systems. He argued that the environment resembles the post-pandemic period, when growth strengthened after stimulus measures began to take effect.

Other industry voices share this view. BitMine chair Tom Lee said Wednesday he expects Bitcoin to return to $100,000 before the end of the year and potentially reach new record highs, noting that long-term confidence among investors remains strong.