Bitcoin Price Patterns Still Echo Historic Halving Cycles, Says Glassnode

Bitcoin price action may still be tracking its historic four-year halving cycle, even as some market participants argue that growing institutional adoption could reshape the familiar pattern. Onchain analytics firm Glassnode said current trends echo previous cycles and suggest the market may be further along than many believe.

“From a cyclical perspective, BTC price action also echoes prior patterns,” the firm wrote, noting that long-term holders — investors who hold coins for more than 155 days — are taking profits at levels comparable to past euphoric stages.

Demand Weakens as Traders Chase Volatility

Signs of fatigue are emerging in Bitcoin demand, Glassnode observed. Spot BTC ETFs have seen outflows of around $975 million over the last four trading sessions, according to Farside Investors. 

At the same time, Bitcoin has retreated 8.3% from its mid-August record of $124,128 to around $113,940, CoinMarketCap data shows.

This cooling appetite has pushed traders toward speculative bets. Glassnode highlighted that open interest across major altcoins briefly touched a record $60 billion before correcting with a $2.5 billion pullback.

The firm said that if history is a guide, Bitcoin’s highs could still arrive in the coming months. In both the 2018 and 2022 cycles, peak prices were recorded only two to three months beyond where the market currently stands when measured from the previous cycle low. 

Independent analyst Rekt Capital also noted in July that if BTC mirrors its 2020 trajectory, the market peak could come in October — about 550 days after the April 2024 halving.

Growing Debate Over the Bitcoin Cycle’s Relevance

Still, not everyone is convinced the halving cycle remains the dominant force. Several executives and investors argue that rising institutional demand, particularly through public company treasuries and ETFs, could alter the timeline.

On Aug. 10, investor Jason Williams said the top 100 treasury companies now hold close to one million Bitcoin, citing data from BitcoinTreasuries.NET that values corporate holdings at over $112 billion. This, he argued, makes the current cycle structurally different.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan echoed this sentiment, declaring in July that “the BTC cycle is dead.” He expects Bitcoin to enjoy an “up year” in 2026, suggesting that macroeconomic factors, especially a favorable interest rate environment, may now outweigh the traditional halving rhythm.