Bitcoin Surge Driven by Halving Shock, Not Just U.S. Election: Analyst

Bitcoin recent rally has sparked widespread speculation on its causes. Many attribute the surge to favorable market sentiment following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election. However, according to Jesse Myers, co-founder of Onramp Bitcoin, the election is only part of the story. In a recent post on social media platform X, Myers pointed to a deeper, more predictable catalyst — Bitcoin’s post-halving supply shock.

The Bitcoin halving event, which took place in April, reduced block rewards for miners from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, thereby tightening Bitcoin’s supply. Myers explained that the halving has gradually restricted the available Bitcoin for purchase, creating what he calls a “supply shock.” With demand outpacing new supply, prices are being forced higher to find equilibrium.

Bitcoin ETFs Fueling Demand Surge

Another factor adding fuel to Bitcoin’s price rally is the influx of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S., which launched in January and have since sparked significant investor interest.

On November 11, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw a dramatic spike in inflows, with about 13,940 BTC purchased in a single day, dwarfing the 450 BTC generated through mining. Myers suggests this imbalance between supply and demand is propelling Bitcoin’s value higher, and he anticipates it will drive prices into an eventual mania phase or bubble.

The cyclical pattern of Bitcoin’s price bubble every four years following each halving event supports this view. Myers noted that Bitcoin’s supply constraint creates a unique environment for price escalation, stating, “There has never been an asset in the world where new supply creation is halved every four years.” He believes that the current rally is simply another chapter in Bitcoin’s predictable supply-driven price cycle.

Analysts Share Bullish Sentiment

Bitcoin’s scarcity is also echoed by other prominent figures in the crypto space. On-chain analyst James Check compared Bitcoin’s $1.6 trillion market cap to that of gold, which is valued at over $6 trillion yet continues to be bolstered by new supply. Bitcoin, in contrast, is strictly limited, with nearly 94% of its supply already in circulation or lost, leaving around 1.2 million BTC to be mined.

American financier Anthony Scaramucci also weighed in, stating that investors haven’t “missed the boat” on Bitcoin. He predicts that not only will the U.S. establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, but other nations may follow suit, increasing institutional interest.