Data shows bitcoin tracking gold more closely than tech stocks, a shift some sources describe as a six-year high in the gold relationship.
Bitcoin’s statistical relationship with gold has strengthened noticeably, with correlation readings reaching approximately +0.50. Several reports describe this as the highest such reading in six years. Over the same period, bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq has declined, with one source placing it at a one-year low.
Correlation measures how closely two assets move together, on a scale from -1 to +1. A reading near +0.50 suggests bitcoin and gold have been moving in the same direction with moderate consistency, though far from lockstep. A falling Nasdaq correlation indicates bitcoin’s price action has become less tied to the swings of major technology stocks, at least for now.
This shift matters because bitcoin has spent much of the past several years trading as a risk asset, often moving in tandem with equities and especially with tech-heavy indexes like the Nasdaq. That behavior challenged the long-running argument that bitcoin functions as a hedge or a form of digital gold. A rising gold correlation, paired with a fading equity correlation, revives that narrative, at least statistically.
Gold itself has drawn renewed attention amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, with investors historically turning to it during periods of inflation concern or monetary policy shifts. If bitcoin is increasingly tracking gold’s movements rather than those of growth stocks, it may reflect changing investor perception of bitcoin’s role in a portfolio. Some market participants view this as evidence that bitcoin is being treated more like a store-of-value asset and less like a speculative tech proxy.
Correlation figures, however, are not static. They shift over weeks and months depending on the measurement window and market conditions. A reading of +0.50 with gold, while elevated relative to recent history, still leaves considerable room for the two assets to diverge on any given day. Similarly, a one-year low in Nasdaq correlation does not mean the relationship has disappeared entirely, only that it has weakened relative to recent norms.
Analysts often caution against reading too much into short-term correlation shifts, since they can reverse quickly if market drivers change. Even so, the current data point offers a meaningful signal that bitcoin’s trading behavior may be diverging from equities at this particular moment. Whether this trend persists will depend on how both traditional and crypto markets respond to broader macroeconomic developments in the months ahead.
Sources disagree on this story
This article was published before the reports below were compared. The reporting above stands; what follows is where the published accounts do not agree.
Outlets agree Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with gold is around +0.50 and its Nasdaq correlation has fallen to about +0.30, but they describe the record differently, with some outlets calling it a six-year high matching the 2020 pandemic peak.
What all sources agree on
- Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with gold is around +0.50.
- Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has fallen to approximately +0.30, a one-year low.
- The Kobeissi Letter is cited as a source for the gold-correlation analysis, along with data from Bitwise and Bloomberg.
- The shift is linked to macro factors including the U.S. Treasury's move to increase its long-dated debt buyback operations.
Where the reports disagree
1Whether the gold correlation is a six-year high or matches the 2020 pandemic peak (implying a different multi-year timeframe)
This nearly matches the peak reached during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, when global markets faced extreme uncertainty.
Bitcoin’s correlation with gold has reached a nearly six-year high, while its correlation with the Nasdaq has dropped to a one-year low, according to recent data shared by WuBlockchain.
Bitcoin's correlation with gold hits a six-year peak at +0.50.
What would settle it: The original Kobeissi Letter / Bitwise / Bloomberg / WuBlockchain data release specifying the exact historical timeframe used for the correlation comparison.
What to make of it
Treat the +0.50 gold correlation and +0.30 one-year-low Nasdaq correlation as established across sources, but the claim about which multi-year record is being broken (six-year vs. matching a longer historical peak) has not been reconciled and should not be repeated as a settled fact.
Market Impact
A stronger bitcoin-gold correlation could influence how institutional allocators think about portfolio diversification, particularly those already holding gold as an inflation hedge. If the trend holds, some investors may begin treating bitcoin allocations similarly to gold allocations, rather than as a leveraged bet on tech sentiment.
At the same time, a weakening Nasdaq correlation could reduce the degree to which bitcoin price swings are driven by broader equity market sentiment, at least temporarily. This would mark a notable change from patterns observed in recent years, when bitcoin often moved closely with risk assets during periods of monetary tightening or loosening. Market watchers will likely track whether this decoupling from tech stocks continues or proves temporary.
The shifting correlation data adds a new data point to the ongoing debate over bitcoin's role as either a risk asset or a store-of-value hedge. Whether the trend toward gold and away from tech stocks continues will become clearer as more market data emerges in the coming weeks.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a bitcoin-gold correlation of +0.50 mean?
It means bitcoin and gold have been moving in the same direction with moderate consistency over the measured period, though not in perfect lockstep. A reading of +1.0 would indicate identical movement, while 0 would indicate no relationship.
Why does a falling Nasdaq correlation matter for bitcoin?
Bitcoin has often traded similarly to tech stocks in recent years, reinforcing its reputation as a risk asset. A weaker link to the Nasdaq suggests its price may currently be less influenced by equity market sentiment.
Is this correlation shift permanent?
Correlation figures change frequently based on market conditions and the time period measured. Reports describe the current gold correlation as a multi-year high, but such readings can shift again as macroeconomic conditions evolve.
Does this mean bitcoin is now behaving like digital gold?
The data supports arguments made by proponents of that view, but a moderate correlation reading does not confirm bitcoin consistently trades like gold. Analysts generally treat correlation shifts as evolving trends rather than fixed characteristics.
