By the Defund Capital Markets Desk
Hyperliquid’s HYPE token traded near $84 this week, leaving it roughly 19% short of the $100 level that has become the market’s next psychological target. The token has rallied through August on a mix of U.S. regulatory optimism and the steady, fee-funded buyback that sits beneath its price.
The round number is already on analysts’ radar. Among the firms most willing to underwrite it is Defund Capital, a pooled-capital over-the-counter desk that says it has held HYPE since Hyperliquid’s earliest days and now counts the token as its highest-conviction position.
In an interview, Defund Capital’s co-founders — David Clarkson and Kiran Pothana — said the desk was positioned in HYPE before the token even had a liquid market, and has not trimmed its holdings through a single drawdown since.
A three-year position
Defund’s involvement predates the token. According to the firm, the desk began building exposure to Hyperliquid around the network’s 2023 mainnet debut, held through the November 2024 airdrop, and kept buying through the late-2025 contributor-unlock cliff that briefly cut the protocol’s market share roughly in half.
The desk operates as a pooled OTC vehicle: client capital is deployed into HYPE through negotiated over-the-counter trades and tracked on an append-only ledger, according to the firm, with each deposit, fill and payout reconcilable to the token. That structure, Defund argues, is why it was still buying when faster money left in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Defund is not alone in its conviction. Bitwise has called HYPE one of the most undervalued assets in crypto; Arthur Hayes floated a $150 target earlier in 2026 before trimming his position; and research firm Citrini has flagged Hyperliquid as a “compelling” idea. Defund’s contribution is a hard number and a timeframe: $100 within a year.
The bull case, in four numbers
Hyperliquid is one of the few crypto assets where a price target can lean on cash flows rather than sentiment.
- Category dominance. Hyperliquid runs roughly $245 billion in trailing 30-day perpetuals volume — on the order of four times its nearest on-chain rival — and holds close to 60% of all perpetual-DEX open interest, according to DefiLlama and Coinglass data.
- A buyback that eats supply. Between 97% and 99% of net protocol fees are routed to the Assistance Fund for continuous open-market HYPE purchases. The fund has bought back more than $2 billion of HYPE since January 2025, running near $65–74 million a month.
- An institutional on-ramp. U.S. spot HYPE ETFs from Bitwise and 21Shares now give regulated capital a wrapper that did not exist during the token’s first leg.
- A live regulatory catalyst. HYPE jumped double digits in mid-August after President Trump said the CFTC was working to bring Hyperliquid to U.S. users on a compliant path — the clearest sign yet that the venue could access the world’s largest derivatives market.
Put together, Defund argues, the picture is a market leader shrinking its own float while institutional access widens — the conditions for a durable re-rating.
The bear case Defund acknowledges
The counterargument is not sentiment either — it is on the tape. Gross protocol revenue peaked near $357 million in the third quarter of 2025 and has fallen every quarter since, to roughly $202 million in the second quarter of 2026, as lower-fee real-world-asset perps took share from richer crypto pairs. Monthly contributor unlocks that began in late 2025 continue to add supply, and Hyperliquid’s market share, having dipped toward 20%, has only partly recovered.
For fee growth to keep outrunning supply, most analysts agree volumes need to hold above roughly $150–200 billion a month and share needs to climb back through 40%. Hayes’s exit near his own target is a reminder that conviction and timing are different problems.
Defund’s answer is that the largest headwind — the unlock — is scheduled and known, not a surprise. Clarkson said such a telegraphed unlock, met by a mechanical, revenue-funded buyback, is a risk the desk can underwrite.
Why $100, and why within a year
The arithmetic is the least dramatic part of the thesis. From the mid-$80s, HYPE needs a re-rate of under 20% to print three figures — a move it has made off a single catalyst more than once this year. The token is up more than 100% from its January low near $21, and added roughly 20% in a matter of days on the Trump-CFTC headline alone.
Defund frames $100 as a base case, not a stretch: continued market-share recovery, ETF inflows, and the buyback compounding against a maturing unlock schedule are each, on their own, the kind of catalyst that has historically been enough. Pothana said the desk does not need every catalyst to land — just one, while the buyback keeps grinding underneath.
Whether HYPE reaches $100 in three months or twelve, Defund’s position has not changed in three years: it is not selling.
To see how Defund Capital structures its pooled HYPE strategy — or to open an account — visit defundcapital.com.
Disclaimer
This article is market commentary published by Defund Capital and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Defund Capital holds a position in HYPE on behalf of its clients and stands to benefit from increased interest in Hyperliquid. Forward-looking statements, including any price target, are opinions, not guarantees; digital assets are highly volatile and you can lose your entire investment. Figures cited (price, volume, revenue, buybacks) reflect third-party data as of late August 2026 and will change. Readers should conduct independent research and consult a licensed financial adviser.
Sources: DefiLlama — Hyperliquid · CoinGecko — Hyperliquid (HYPE) · CoinDesk — Hyperliquid coverage · Hyperliquid
