Kraken Research Says Crypto Markets Are Changing

New research from Kraken economist Thomas Perfumo shows that the crypto market is changing fast. Macroeconomic pressure, institutional investors, and tighter market structure now matter more than speculation.

Bitcoin still reflects overall market risk, but how demand and liquidity flow into crypto has changed for the long term.

Bitcoin Demand Grows, but Prices Stay Steady

According to Perfumo, Bitcoin still acts as the main signal for investor confidence, but the forces driving its price have changed. Big players like U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate companies buying the coin for their balance sheets now have a strong influence on prices. 

These sources brought in a lot of money during 2025, but prices did not rise as much as in past cycles. Kraken latest data shows these institutional channels created nearly $44 billion in new Bitcoin demand in 2025.

Even with this strong demand, prices stayed relatively steady. Long-term holders sold enough Bitcoin to meet new demand, which kept prices from jumping sharply. 

At the same time, the wider economy continued to shape market direction. Slow global growth, rising prices, and careful central banks made investors less willing to take risks, holding back crypto and other assets.

Kraken also warned that quiet markets can be misleading. If liquidity tightens, sudden price swings could return. This is especially if economic conditions get worse or financial policy stays tight.

Bitcoin Faces Slower ETF Flows as Investors Shift Assets

Kraken says money flowing into Bitcoin ETFs slowed in 2025 compared to the year before. Bitcoin treasury firms  are also under pressure as stock market rewards shrink. 

With less access to new funding, these firms may find it hard to drive another strong price rally unless markets become more willing to take risks.

ARK Invest shares this view and points to money moving between asset classes. In 2025, gold rose sharply while Bitcoin fell. Despite the short-term weakness, Bitcoin still moves differently from traditional assets. 

Its link to gold is weaker than the link between stocks and bonds. This factor helps Bitcoin serve as a diversification tool during uncertain economic times. Traders are now watching to see if the flagship crypto can break above $100,000 or fall back to lower support levels. 

Some analysts believe current prices look cheap compared to U.S. stocks after months of different performance.

Tokenization and Stablecoins Set to Drive Crypto’s Next Phase

Beyond Bitcoin, Kraken says tokenization and decentralized finance (DeFi) will be major growth drivers in 2026 and beyond. Tokenized assets grew quickly over the past year, and big institutions expect this growth to continue. 

Stablecoins are also at record levels and are a key part of the crypto system. They support trading, payments, and onchain transactions. At the same time, new U.S. regulations are starting to shape the market. Proposed stablecoin laws and market reforms could decide where innovation happens and may attract more institutional players under clearer rules.