Polymarket Volume Figures Questioned After Researcher Flags Major Data Bug

Reports about trading activity on prediction market platform Polymarket may be overstated due to a long running data issue, according to a researcher at venture firm Paradigm. The researcher, known as Storm, said on Tuesday that several popular dashboards have been counting the same trades twice, creating a misleading picture of the platform’s activity.

Storm explained that Polymarket’s onchain records include repeated versions of each trade. When a trade is executed, the system releases one set of OrderFilled events for makers and another for takers. These entries describe a single transaction from two viewpoints, yet many data tools have been adding them together as if they were separate.

How the Bug Inflated Reported Volume

The mistake has affected both notional volume and cashflow volume, two widely used measures for prediction markets. Storm said the issue grew because the platform’s onchain structure is layered in a way that is difficult to read through standard block explorers. 

Some trades involve straightforward swaps, while others involve actions called splits and merges, where both sides move cash while taking opposite positions. These steps lead the contracts to produce repeated entries, but the extra information is meant only for tracking, not counting.

Several major dashboards, including those from DefiLlama, Allium, Blockworks and many Dune Analytics pages, have reportedly been doubling Polymarket volume by mistake. This discovery raises questions about the platform’s recent headline numbers, which helped fuel its image as one of the few upbeat stories in a rocky year for crypto trading.

Industry Valuations Now Under Scrutiny

The Intercontinental Exchange valued Polymarket at $9 billion this week, using $25 billion in reported trading volume. That figure may now be unreliable if the duplicated counts are removed. Earlier reports also suggested the firm was preparing for a US launch at a $10 billion valuation in September. In October, Bloomberg stated that it was seeking to raise funds at a valuation between $12 billion and $15 billion.

Dune Analytics recently showed a record $3.7 billion in monthly activity for November. If Storm’s findings hold, the real number could be far lower. The researcher said prediction markets are growing into a major financial segment and called for the industry to move toward shared and transparent reporting methods so platforms are measured on consistent terms.