Tom Lee Scales Back Bold Bitcoin Target as Year-End Nears

BitMine chair Tom Lee has toned down his earlier call for Bitcoin to hit $250,000 by the end of the year, saying during a Wednesday CNBC interview that such a level is now unlikely. Instead, he said Bitcoin may only return to its October record of $125,100, adding a cautious “maybe” when asked about the chance of a fresh peak.

Lee had repeatedly stood by the $250,000 target throughout the first half of 2024 and into early October, making Wednesday’s shift the first clear sign that he no longer expects that outcome. 

His outlook had been one of the most upbeat among major voices in the sector. Others, including Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, argued in October that it would take unusual market forces for BTC to reach such height in the current setting.

Even so, Lee said he still sees room for strong movement before the end of 2025. “I think it’s still very likely that Bitcoin is going to be above $100,000 before year-end, and maybe even to a new high,” he said. He later added that he expects some of Bitcoin’s strongest sessions to arrive within the next 35 days.

A market known for sudden jumps

Lee noted a well-known pattern: Bitcoin often posts most of its yearly gains within a short stretch of sessions. He said the asset usually “makes its move” in roughly 10 days each year, a view echoed by other industry figures.

Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley wrote in a February 2024 X post that missing those standout days in past years meant missing nearly all of Bitcoin’s long-term gains. In 2024, Bitcoin’s top 10 sessions produced a combined rise of 52%, while the remaining days averaged a loss of 15%.

The market has struggled since Oct. 10 following a $19 billion liquidation wave triggered by the U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods. Bitcoin dipped below $90,000 for six straight days before climbing back above that mark on Wednesday. 

Mixed record on past calls

November has usually been BTC’s strongest month since 2013, according to CoinGlass, yet this year has not followed that pattern. Economist Timothy Peterson said Monday that Bitcoin may have already found its low for this cycle, or is close to doing so.

Lee’s forecasts have seen both misses and wins. In January 2018, he suggested Bitcoin could reach $125,000 by 2022; the asset only crossed that level in October 2024. 

But in July 2017, he projected a base case of $20,000 by 2022, with an upper range of $55,000. BTC reached $20,000 in December 2020 and $55,000 in March 2021, placing those calls closer to the mark.