Trump Narrows Fed Chair Hunt as Markets Watch Hassett’s Lead Slip

The contest for the next US Fed Reserve chair is reaching its final stretch, with President Donald Trump set to begin interviewing top contenders this week. 

The Financial Times reported on Tuesday that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has given the White House a shortlist of four names, marking the clearest sign yet that the selection process is moving into its last phase.

Fed Chair Finalists Emerge as Trump signals a favorite

Among the names delivered to the White House is former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, whom Bessent is scheduled to meet on Wednesday. Also on the list is National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett, widely seen as the frontrunner for the role. Two others will be chosen from a broader pool that includes Fed governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, as well as BlackRock chief investment officer Rick Rieder.

Trump and Bessent are expected to conduct at least one interview next week, with an official announcement likely in January. Trump hinted that he already has a strong preference. Speaking to reporters on Air Force One on Tuesday, he said, “We’re going to be looking at a couple different people, but I have a pretty good idea of who I want.”

While Hassett has long been viewed as the favorite, the upcoming interviews show that the process may not be fully settled.

Prediction markets adjust as odds shift

Earlier this month, trading activity on prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket surged after Trump referred to Hassett as a “potential Fed chair” during a White House event on Dec. 2. That comment sent Hassett’s odds soaring to 85% as traders moved quickly to price in a likely appointment.

Those odds have cooled since then. As of Tuesday, Hassett’s probability on Kalshi stands around 73%, while Warsh sits near 13%, a level that has remained steady through December. The narrowing gap reflects growing expectations that Trump may still interview multiple finalists before making a call.

Whoever wins the post will take control of the central bank at a sensitive moment for monetary policy and financial markets, including crypto. Hassett has insisted that he would run the Fed independently despite his close connection to Trump. Speaking with The Wall Street Journal, he said that he would rely on his own judgment rather than political pressure.

“Suppose that inflation has gotten from, say, 2.5% to 4%. You can’t cut,” Hassett said, stressing that policy decisions cannot be dictated by political preference. The coming weeks will determine whether he gets the chance to prove it.