Analyst Says Strategy Unlikely to Face Bitcoin Liquidation in Next Bear Market

Strategy, led by Bitcoin advocate Michael Saylor, is unlikely to sell any of its vast Bitcoin holdings during the next major crypto downturn, according to prominent Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo.

In an X post on Wednesday, Woo dismissed speculation that the company could be forced into liquidation during a future bear market. “MSTR liquidation in the next bear market? I doubt it,” he wrote, adding that the firm’s debt structure and strong asset position make such an outcome highly improbable.

Convertible Debt and Bitcoin Price Cushion

Strategy’s debt primarily consists of convertible senior notes, which the company can repay using cash, common stock, or a combination of both, depending on its financial position at the time. The firm’s largest upcoming debt obligation totals $1.01 billion, due on September 15, 2027.

Woo explained that Strategy would only need to consider selling Bitcoin to meet those obligations if its stock price fell below $183.19. This roughly equates to a Bitcoin price of $91,502, assuming a multiple net-asset-value (mNAV) of 1. With Bitcoin currently trading above that threshold, Woo believes the company remains in a comfortable position.

Another analyst, known online as The Bitcoin Therapist, echoed Woo’s assessment, saying that “Bitcoin would have to perform horribly” for MicroStrategy to face forced liquidation. “It would take one hell of a sustained bear market to see any liquidation for Strategy,” they added.

As of publication, Strategy holds approximately 641,205 Bitcoin, valued at around $64 billion, according to data from Saylor Tracker. The company’s stock closed at $246.99 on Tuesday, a 6.7% decline and its lowest level in seven months. This came as Bitcoin dropped over 10% over the past week to $101,377.

Woo Warns of Possible Partial Liquidation by Strategy

While Woo dismissed the likelihood of full liquidation, he cautioned that a “partial liquidation” could occur if Bitcoin’s price fails to rally strongly during the next anticipated 2028 bull market. “Ironically, there’s a chance of a partial liquidation if BTC doesn’t climb in value fast enough,” he said.

Despite short-term volatility, major industry figures remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term outlook. Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong have both projected that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030.