ARK Sees Crypto Market at $28 Trillion by 2030 as Bitcoin Drives Growth

Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest says digital assets could reach a total market size of $28 trillion by 2030, led mainly by Bitcoin adoption and price gains. The forecast was published Wednesday in ARK’s Big Ideas 2026 report.

ARK estimates the crypto market would need to grow at a 61% CAGR over the next five years to reach that level. BTC is expected to make up about 70% of the total value.

Bitcoin Supply Math Points to $1M Price

ARK’s model assumes that around 20.5 million Bitcoin will be mined by 2030. If BTC captures 70% of a $28 trillion market, its total value would be close to $19.6 trillion.

That places the implied BTC price between $950,000 and $1 million per coin.

ARK said Bitcoin is moving into a phase where large firms and funds treat it as a core asset. Bitcoin ETFs and public companies raised their share of total Bitcoin supply from 8.7% to 12% during 2025.

Cathie Wood made a similar call in February, stating BTC could reach as high as $1.5 million by the end of the decade.

Smart Contract Chains Target $6 Trillion

Beyond Bitcoin, ARK expects smart contract networks to play a major role in crypto growth. Ethereum and Solana were named as the main beneficiaries.

ARK projects this segment to reach $6 trillion by 2030, growing at a 54% CAGR. These networks currently post about $192 billion in annualized revenue, based on an average take rate of 0.75%.

The report added that tokens linked to these chains may gain most of their value from reserve asset and store of value use, rather than from cash flow models.

Tokenized Real World Assets Seen at $11T

ARK also forecast major growth in tokenized real world assets. The firm expects $11 trillion worth of assets to be onchain by 2030, driven by clearer rules and better systems for large investors.

Current data from RWA.xyz shows $22.25 billion in tokenized assets on public blockchains. To reach ARK’s target, this market would need to grow at a 245.8% CAGR over the rest of the decade.