Bearish Sentiment Signals Potential Crypto Market Bottom, Says Felix Hartmann

As crypto markets remain gripped by uncertainty, Felix Hartmann, founder of Hartmann Capital, believes the worst may soon be over. In a February 8 X post, the venture capitalist suggested the market might be nearing a local bottom, pointing to extended negative funding rates and widespread bearish sentiment — often seen as a precursor to price rebounds.

Funding Rates Hint at Recovery

Hartmann highlighted that crypto funding rates, which help align futures and spot market prices, have been consistently negative. This indicates an excess of sellers over buyers, a condition that, when sustained, can hint at a market bottom.

The recent price declines have also pushed quality altcoins back to long-term trendlines, wiping out gains made in Q4 2024. Ether, which traded above $4,000 in December 2024, has now pulled back to $2,639. Solana, after hitting an all-time high of $295 on January 19, has dropped to $201.15.

Memecoins have suffered even greater losses, with the sector’s overall market cap plunging by 32.38% by the end of December.

Crypto analyst Matthew Hyland predicted it could take at least two months before altcoins return to their December highs. Despite the bleak conditions, Hartmann remains optimistic, stating that “terrible sentiment” often precedes major rallies.

Hope for Rebound Remains

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has dropped to a “Fear” score of 46, down from last week’s “Greed” score of 60. Echoing Hartmann’s sentiment, crypto analyst Mike Alfred recently described the current market mood as “terrible,” calling it the typical setup for sector-wide rallies.

Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s chief investment officer, also noted that retail sentiment is at its lowest in years, even as professional investors maintain a bullish outlook. “There is a massive disconnect between retail and professional sentiment right now,” said Hougan.

Hartmann attributed part of the market turbulence to the recent token unlocks, which flooded the market with $35 billion worth of assets between March and October 2024. However, with most venture capital allocations already “dumped,” Hartmann sees the potential for stabilization.

While acknowledging the market may continue to “chop” in the near term, Hartmann believes this phase could represent the final stretch before a potential recovery.