Bitcoin Could Hit $644,000 by 2028 If VanEck’s Prediction Plays Out

The long-standing comparison between Bitcoin and gold has resurfaced. Analysts at VanEck project that the world’s largest cryptocurrency could reach half the market value of gold by its next halving cycle in 2028. This milestone would price the crypto at roughly $644,000 based on current gold prices.

In an X post on Monday, Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital asset research, noted that gold futures recently hit record highs above $4,000 per ounce, pushing Bitcoin’s “equivalent value” significantly higher. “We’ve been saying Bitcoin should reach half of gold’s market cap after the next halving,” Sigel wrote. “At gold’s current price, that implies about $644,000 per BTC.”

Bitcoin vs. Gold: A Generational Shift

The comparison between Bitcoin and gold has long divided investors. While gold has surged roughly 50% this year, driven by global uncertainty, a weakening U.S. dollar, and renewed trade tensions, BTC has trailed in performance despite setting new all-time highs above $126,000 this week.

However, Sigel emphasized that the key difference lies in investor demographics. “Roughly half of gold’s value reflects its role as a store of value rather than industrial or jewelry demand,” he said. “But surveys show that younger consumers, especially in emerging markets, increasingly prefer Bitcoin for that role.”

Supporting that view, analysts hint that younger generations’ skepticism toward traditional financial systems could strengthen Bitcoin’s appeal. They believe the increased public spending and inflation fears could further fuel Bitcoin adoption as a hedge.

Analysts Divided on Gold’s Path Forward

While Bitcoin eyes potential parity with gold, some experts believe the precious metal still has room to grow. Veteran trader Peter Brandt suggested gold may climb even higher before seeing any major correction. “Gold may go substantially higher before any meaningful pullback,” he posted to X, warning that “FOMO buyers at these levels will need deep pockets in the future.”

Meanwhile, BTC critic and long-time gold advocate Peter Schiff downplayed BTC’s recent record all-time highs , noting that it remains about 15% below its record high priced in gold terms. “Bitcoin would have to rise to about $148,000 to match its record high against gold,” he said.

Still, Bitcoin optimists like Joe Consorti, head of growth at Theya, argue that gold’s rise has effectively lifted BTC’s “fair value floor” to $1.34 million, suggesting the asset’s long-term potential remains vastly underappreciated.