Bitcoin, the world’s leading cryptocurrency, could see its value peak between $130,000 and $150,000 by late August to early September, according to veteran crypto trader Peter Brandt. Brandt’s analysis, published in a report on June 2, is based on the patterns observed in previous post-halving bull markets.
The most recent Bitcoin halving event, which occurred on April 20, is a significant milestone for the cryptocurrency. This event, which takes place approximately every four years, reduces the mining rewards by 50%, effectively halving the rate at which new Bitcoin is created. Historically, these halving events have been pivotal in Bitcoin’s market cycles, often heralding significant price increases.
Brandt’s analysis hinges on the symmetry observed in past bull market cycles. He noted that Bitcoin halving dates have traditionally marked the midpoint between the beginning of a bull market and its eventual peak. For instance, the bull market following the May 11, 2020 halving began about 16 months prior and concluded roughly 18 months afterward.
Similarly, the two previous halving events on July 9, 2016, and November 28, 2012, followed this symmetrical pattern. If this historical sequence holds true, Brandt predicts that the next bull market cycle high should occur in late August or early September 2025.
He emphasizes, however, that no analytical method is infallible when predicting Bitcoin’s cycle peaks. Nonetheless, based on historical trends, he estimates that the upcoming peak could be in the $130,000 to $150,000 range.
While Brandt’s projection is optimistic, he also acknowledges the possibility that Bitcoin may have already reached its peak in this bull cycle. According to his analysis, the current bull market began on December 17, 2022, when Bitcoin was trading around $16,800.
Since then, Bitcoin has surged over 300%, reaching $67,882. Despite this substantial increase, Bitcoin has yet to surpass its all-time high of $73,679 set on March 14.
Brandt estimates a 25% chance that Bitcoin has already reached its bull market top, citing a pattern of diminishing gains in each successive bull cycle. Should Bitcoin fail to establish a new all-time high and instead fall below $55,000, Brandt would increase the likelihood that the cryptocurrency is undergoing what he terms an “exponential decay.”
Bitcoin’s price movements often influence the entire crypto market, and a substantial rise could attract more investors, driving up the prices of other cryptocurrencies as well.
However, investors should approach these predictions with caution. The cryptocurrency market is notoriously volatile and influenced by a myriad of factors, including regulatory developments, macroeconomic trends, and technological advancements. While historical patterns can provide insights, they are not guarantees of future performance.
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