Bitcoin Eyes $125K by June as Market Sentiment Remains Neutral

Bitcoin has struggled to break past the critical $100,000 level for the past week, but market analysts suggest that a significant upside move could be on the horizon. A new report by Dr. Sean Dawson, head of research at onchain options protocol Derive, indicates that BTC has a 44.4% chance of reaching $125,000 by late June—an increase from the previous 41.9% projection.

Bitcoin Rally May Resume Soon

Dawson also noted that the probability of Bitcoin dropping to $75,000 before June has declined to just 12.1%, down from 17.8%. His outlook suggests that Bitcoin’s risk-to-reward ratio remains favorable for bullish investors.

Meanwhile, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has taken a more cautious stance. He previously warned that Bitcoin could temporarily retrace to the $70,000-$75,000 range, potentially triggering a “mini financial crisis.” Bitcoin last traded at $75,000 in early November, just days after Donald Trump’s election victory sparked a wave of optimism in the crypto market.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $96,900, according to CoinMarketCap, continuing its consolidation below the $100,000 psychological level since Feb. 7.

Choppy Trading Conditions Persist

Despite the long-term bullish outlook, short-term market sentiment remains uncertain. Crypto trader Jelle noted that unless Bitcoin convincingly reclaims the $100,000 mark, “choppy conditions” are likely to persist.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index—a widely followed metric tracking market sentiment—currently sits at a “Neutral” score of 48, indicating an indecisive market. Traders remain split on whether Bitcoin will make another run toward its all-time high of $109,000, which it briefly hit on Jan. 20 before Trump’s inauguration.

Meanwhile, asset manager VanEck remains highly optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. In a December 2024 report, the firm projected that BTC would reach a “medium-term peak” in the first quarter of 2025 before surging to new all-time highs later in the year. VanEck believes that Bitcoin could trade around $180,000 at the cycle’s apex, with Ethereum surpassing $6,000.