Bitcoin Nears Record High, But Analysts Warn of Looming Correction

Bitcoin is closing in on its all-time high of $111,970, trading at $109,519 at the time of writing. While the milestone appears within reach, analysts warn that the cryptocurrency may struggle to push higher without a meaningful catalyst. 

In a report published Monday, Bitfinex analysts highlighted growing risks of a short-term correction, cautioning that the current rally lacks fundamental support.

“The risk of a short-term correction continues to build — especially in the absence of a strong catalyst to push Bitcoin decisively above the current all-time high,” they said.

The analysts pointed to long-term holders, many of whom bought in Q1 2025 when BTC dipped as low as $78,513, as critical to the market’s next move. Those investors are now sitting on gains of around 39%, and whether they choose to take profits or hold could determine Bitcoin’s near-term direction.

Decision Time for Long-Term Holders

As Bitcoin flirts with its all-time high, holders from earlier in the year are faced with a pivotal choice. “Market participants still holding coins from Q1 2025, and who held through the sharp drawdown below $80,000, are now being tested as the price churns sideways near ATH levels,” Bitfinex noted.

The firm warned that if long-term holders start selling in large numbers, Bitcoin could enter a prolonged consolidation phase — something it has done in the past. In 2024, Bitcoin hit a then-record of $73,679 in March but traded sideways for months before gaining momentum again after the U.S. presidential election in November.

Adding to market tension, CoinGlass data shows that roughly $1.08 billion in short positions could be liquidated if BTC breaks above its previous high, potentially triggering rapid price moves in either direction.

Bitcoin Traders Await Fed Decision and Political Clarity

Macro events may be the deciding factor in Bitcoin’s next big move. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its next interest rate decision on June 18. Any hint of rate cuts could act as a bullish trigger for BTC and other risk-on assets.

Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainty continues to cloud investor sentiment. Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal noted that persistent tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump could stall the BTC rally.

 “The biggest threat to bulls right now is that nothing changes over the next two months, and we just stay trapped in this cycle of endless tariff ultimatums,” Hundal said.