Bitwise Says Q4 2025 Likely Marked Crypto Bear Market Low

The fourth quarter of 2025 may have marked the end of the crypto bear market, according to a new report from asset manager Bitwise. The report was shared Wednesday and written by Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan.

Bitwise said price action during Q4 looked weak, even as network data and business activity moved higher. Hougan compared the setup to early 2023, when crypto prices stalled after the FTX collapse before starting a major rally.

Bitcoin traded near $16,000 in early 2023 before climbing steadily to about $98,000 by the start of 2025. Hougan said the same pattern is forming again, with price falling or moving sideways while usage data keeps rising.

Price Weakness Versus Network Growth

Hougan said Q4 showed a clear split between price and activity. Crypto assets sold off during the quarter, but core metrics continued to climb.

Ethereum and layer 2 networks posted record transaction counts. Daily activity on scaling networks reached new highs as fees stayed low and user counts rose.

At the same time, revenue at crypto firms outpaced most public equity sectors. Hougan said earnings growth remained strong even as token prices failed to follow.

He described the setup as typical for late bear market phases, where sellers remain active but long term buyers start building positions.

Stablecoins and DeFi Hit New Records

Stablecoins also expanded sharply in Q4. Total market value crossed $300 billion for the first time, according to Bitwise data.

Transaction volume tied to dollar linked tokens rose alongside assets under management. Hougan said the growth shows continued demand for onchain settlement and trading tools.

DeFi usage also climbed. Uniswap processed more trading volume than Coinbase on a regular basis during the quarter. Hougan said this shift shows traders are moving more activity onchain, even during market pullbacks.

2026 Outlook Remains Split

Market views for 2026 remain mixed. Fundstrat research head Tom Lee expects most of the year to stay weak, pointing to tariffs and political risks. He expects stronger price action later in the year.

VanEck holds a more positive view. The firm expects the first quarter of 2026 to favor risk assets, citing better fiscal signals and a steadier US economy.

Bitwise said several events could push prices higher. These include progress on the CLARITY Act, a strong stablecoin cycle, a new Federal Reserve chair, and three large wirehouses opening crypto ETF access to clients.

Hougan said similar data gaps between price and usage have marked prior market lows, with major moves following months later.