Coinbase Sees Jump in Shares After JPMorgan Upgrade Citing Base Network, USDC Strategy

Shares of Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) surged on Friday after JPMorgan Chase upgraded the cryptocurrency exchange, citing new growth opportunities tied to its Base network and evolving USDC payout model. The bank’s analysts raised their rating and increased their price target to $404 per share, suggesting about 15% upside from current levels.

JPMorgan’s report praised Coinbase’s strategic focus on its Base layer-2 blockchain, describing the move as an effort to capture more value from the platform’s rapid expansion. The analysts projected that the launch of a Base token could create a market worth $12 billion to $34 billion, with the exchange’s potential retained share estimated between $4 billion and $12 billion.

According to the bank, token distribution would likely favor developers, validators, and the broader Base community, a model aimed at fostering long-term ecosystem growth.

Potential Earnings Boost from USDC Program Changes

Beyond the Base network, JPMorgan highlighted another revenue driver: modifications to Coinbase’s USDC rewards program. The firm suggested that the exchange could reduce interest rewards for most users while reserving them mainly for Coinbase One subscribers. 

This adjustment, the analysts said, could add approximately $374 million in annual earnings at current interest rates and USDC yields.

Following the upgrade, COIN shares rallied more than 9% on Friday, closing around $353. The strong performance has pushed the stock up roughly 42% year-to-date, bringing Coinbase’s market capitalization to about $90.6 billion.

Anticipation Builds Ahead of Coinbase Q3 Earnings Report

Investors are now turning their attention to Coinbase’s upcoming third-quarter earnings report, scheduled for October 30. Analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research expect earnings of $1.06 per share, marking a 71% increase year over year, on revenue of $1.74 billion, up 44.1% from the same period last year.

The upcoming results follow a mixed second quarter, during which the exchange missed earnings expectations but reported notable progress in operational areas such as rising stablecoin balances and higher stablecoin-related income. The company’s subscription and services segment continues to gain traction and is projected to contribute between $665 million and $745 million this quarter.

In addition to its financial results, Coinbase has benefited from recent regulatory clarity in the U.S. The approval of the GENIUS Act and the passage of a broader market structure bill in the House have been viewed as positive steps toward establishing a stable framework for crypto regulation.