Bitcoin may be poised for another significant rally, with analysts pointing to a potential interest rate cut by the U.S. Fed as a key catalyst.
According to Carlo Pruscino, a market analyst at CMC Markets, if the Fed reduces rates sooner than expected, Bitcoin could break past its recent high and reach the psychological target of $112,000.
“When these two further rate cuts come, if they’re coming a lot sooner than expected, that will then impact heavily on the future price moves of crypto—on Bitcoin and some other cryptos as well,” Pruscino explained in a recent interview. He believes $112,000 remains a critical upside target for traders watching closely for macroeconomic signals.
Bitcoin recently hit an all-time high of $111,970, before pulling back to around $102,766. As of now, 97.5% of market participants expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady at its upcoming June 18 meeting, according to CME.
However, Pruscino emphasized that the Fed “has enough data” to consider a cut, but ongoing uncertainty around U.S. trade policy, especially President Trump’s tariffs, remains a hurdle.
Tariff concerns have complicated the picture. While a U.S. court temporarily blocked Trump’s tariffs in late May, an appeals court reinstated them, and the tariffs on steel and aluminum have been doubled. This volatility in trade policy, Pruscino noted, could influence the Fed’s timing.
“There needs to be a continuation of improved risk sentiment for $112,000 to be cracked,” he added, underlining the need for a macroeconomic catalyst to drive further gains.
Looking ahead, the U.S. jobs report, due June 6, is expected to play a critical role. “We’ve had some weak U.S. activity recently, so the number’s going to try and be strong enough to negate that,” said Pruscino.
Yet, a stronger-than-expected report—particularly one showing over 250,000 new jobs—could prompt the Fed to hold off on rate cuts even longer, dampening near-term bullish momentum for Bitcoin.
“The jobs number is crucial,” Pruscino warned. “It may ultimately determine whether the Fed feels confident enough to stimulate or needs to keep policy tight.” For crypto traders, all eyes are now on both Washington and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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