Harris and Trump Now Tied on Polymarket After Heated Debate

September 11, 2024

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The odds of the U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris winning the upcoming November election have surged on the crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket, tying her with former President Donald Trump. This development follows a heated presidential debate on Tuesday night, which saw both candidates spar on key issues such as the Gaza war and abortion rights. Interestingly, cryptocurrency, a subject of growing interest, was notably absent from the discussion.

Harris’ Chance of Winning Ties with Trump

Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market with an estimated $860 million in volume, has seen bettors wagering heavily on the outcomes of political events. Following the debate, Polymarket users assigned a 94% chance that Harris emerged victorious, although formal polling data is yet to be disclosed.

Harris’ campaign, while engaging with the broader economic and financial sectors, has not yet taken a concrete position on cryptocurrency policy. This contrasts with Trump, who has publicly expressed support for digital assets on multiple occasions. Despite this, Harris’ odds of winning the election jumped from 46% on Monday night to 49% after the debate, tying her with Trump, whose odds fell from 52% to 49%.

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Implications on Crypto

In the hours leading up to the debate, Bitcoin saw a brief increase, crossing the $58,000 mark, only to dip to around $56,700 during the exchange. As of now, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $56,797. The market’s relatively muted reaction to the political showdown suggests that crypto traders may be taking a cautious approach as they weigh the potential impacts of the election.

Justin d’Anethan, head of APAC business development at crypto market maker Keyrock, noted that Bitcoin acted as a “dispassionate observer” during the debate. He pointed out that the cryptocurrency market, like traditional equities, is influenced by broader economic factors such as inflation fears, interest rate uncertainty, and global geopolitical tensions.

In parallel, PolitiFi coins inspired by the two candidates saw volatility during the debate. Super Trump Coin (STRUMP) recorded a 9.5% decline in the last 24 hours. On the other hand, Kamala Horris (KAMA) experienced a 3.5% surge in its value during the same period.