Polymarket Bets Spike on Possible Trump Pardon for Sam Bankman-Fried

Crypto prediction platform Polymarket has seen a sharp increase in bets speculating that former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) could be pardoned by U.S. President Donald Trump before the end of the year. The surge in wagers came just after Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao received a presidential pardon, fueling debate across the crypto community.

According to Polymarket data, the odds that SBF will be pardoned in 2025 jumped from 5.6% to 12% within 12 hours, as traders rushed to place more than $6.5 million in total bets. Of that, roughly $302,000 was staked specifically on the possibility of a pardon for the convicted FTX founder.

Another related Polymarket contract, predicting whether SBF would be “released from custody in 2025,” rose from 4.3% to 19.1% before settling around 15.5%.

Debate Over Whether Bankman-Fried Deserves Similar Treatment

Bankman-Fried is currently serving a 25-year federal prison sentence after being convicted of fraud and conspiracy to commit money laundering, related to the collapse of his crypto exchange, FTX. By contrast, CZ received just a four-month sentence for failing to maintain an adequate Anti-Money Laundering program at Binance, a compliance issue rather than outright fraud.

Industry experts were quick to highlight the stark difference between the two cases. Crypto lawyer Jake Chervinsky said he would be “truly shocked” if Trump granted SBF a pardon. He noted that the former FTX CEO was a major Democratic donor before FTX imploded in 2022. 

“His name is half punch line, half curse word in D.C. Not a single serious person wants this,” Chervinsky wrote.

Sasha Hodder, founder of Hodder Law, echoed that sentiment, saying, “Unlike SBF or Do Kwon, CZ wasn’t accused of stealing user funds or defrauding customers. Binance operated as a real exchange. Withdrawals always worked. His ‘crime’ was compliance-related, not criminal in the moral sense.”

Trump’s Remarks and Political Context

When asked about Zhao’s pardon earlier this week, President Trump said he was told that “what CZ did was not even a crime” and that Zhao had been “persecuted by the Biden administration.” The president’s comment has intensified speculation about whether political alliances or personal endorsements may influence future pardons.

CZ is known to be a key backer of the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial crypto platform, which launched earlier this year.

While Bankman-Fried has filed an appeal to reduce his sentence, legal experts say it is unlikely to progress before year-end. This leaves a presidential pardon as his only potential path to early release. Still, given the scale of his conviction and political baggage, many in the crypto industry believe such a pardon remains highly improbable.