Selective Liquidity to Define Crypto Market as Altcoin Rallies Lose Steam

The next phase of the crypto market may look very different from past cycles, with broad altcoin rallies fading and capital focusing on a narrow group of large assets. That is the view from CoinEx Research chief analyst Jeff Ko, who warns that expectations of a classic altseason are misplaced.

Ko said retail traders hoping that all tokens rise together are set for frustration. In his view, liquidity will move with precision, favoring a small set of established coins with real usage and staying power. Smaller and weaker projects, he added, are unlikely to benefit from the same flows seen in earlier cycles.

Ko expects some global liquidity support in 2026, though he said central bank policy paths will vary widely. He also noted that Bitcoin’s past link to M2 money supply growth has weakened since spot ETFs launched in 2024. 

According to Ko, this shift means macro liquidity alone may no longer drive broad crypto gains. CoinEx’s base case still sees Bitcoin reaching $180,000 by 2026.

Crypto Market Still Risks Bear

Not all crypto market veterans share that outlook. Long time trader Peter Brandt offered a much colder take this week, warning that Bitcoin’s history points to another deep drawdown before the next major peak. Brandt said Bitcoin has posted five major parabolic moves over the past 15 years, each followed by drops of at least 80%.

While he believes the current cycle is still active, Brandt projected the next major market top for September 2029. That timeline lines up with the four year cycle theory and a peak roughly one year after the next halving, expected around April 2028. 

If past patterns repeat, an 80% decline from a future high could drag Bitcoin back toward $25,000 before the next long uptrend takes hold.

Cycle Questions Grow as Q4 Weakens

The four year cycle theory is under pressure as current price action breaks past norms. Historically, the fourth quarter has been Bitcoin’s strongest period. Data from Coinglass shows that eight of the past 12 fourth quarters delivered the largest gains of the year, with only one posting a single digit return.

This quarter tells a different story. Bitcoin is down more than 22% so far, making it the second weakest fourth quarter on record. Market feed Milk Road said this kind of drop often clears excess leverage and weak positioning from the system.

That reset does not promise a fast rebound. Milk Road noted that while such conditions can help form a stronger base over time, upside in 2026 is far from guaranteed. The crypto market is currently standing at $2.96 trillion market cap, around 31% below its October high of $4.28 trillion.