Bitcoin Nears a Historic Breakout as Peter Brandt Warns of a Cycle-Defying Surge

Veteran trader Peter Brandt believes Bitcoin may be entering one of its most significant phases yet, one that could redefine its historical price patterns and send it soaring to new heights. 

During a recent interview, Brandt said that while Bitcoin could still top out soon, the next few days will determine whether it continues toward unprecedented price discovery.

The Timing That Could Decide Bitcoin Price 

According to Brandt, Bitcoin current cycle has followed a near-perfect rhythm so far. The cryptocurrency hit its bear-market low on November 9, 2022, exactly 533 days before the April 20, 2024 halving — a key event that historically resets BTC supply dynamics.

“If you add 533 days to the halving, you arrive at this week,” Brandt said. Interestingly, that window coincided almost perfectly with Bitcoin’s new all-time high above $126,100 on Monday, suggesting a critical turning point in the market cycle.

While Brandt acknowledged that a top could form soon, he also pointed out that deviations from expected patterns often produce the strongest moves. “Trends that violate the prevailing cyclic or seasonal nature of markets are typically the most dramatic,” he noted.

The veteran analyst, who has accurately forecasted major Bitcoin trends in the past, said he’s split 50/50 on whether the cycle ends here or pushes higher. “I will remain bullish, hopeful for counter-cyclicality. In this case, a move well beyond $150,000, perhaps as high as $185,000, would be my expectation,” he added.

Analysts Divided Over Four-Year Cycle

The conversation around Bitcoin’s four-year cycle has reignited as the asset enters uncharted territory. Some analysts argue that institutional adoption and the introduction of spot BTC ETFs have altered the market structure, making historical comparisons less reliable.

However, others believe that despite evolving conditions, the cyclical pattern remains intact. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital said in July that if the 2020 cycle repeats, Bitcoin could peak in October, adding that “only a small window for expansion remains.”

Meanwhile, economist Timothy Peterson predicts a 50% chance that BTC ends October above $140,000, while BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and Unchained’s Joe Burnett see prices reaching $250,000 by the end of 2025.