Strategy Could Join S&P 500 Despite Bitcoin Slowdown, Says 10X Research

Despite a recent dip in share price and a slowdown in Bitcoin accumulation, Strategy, the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, could soon join the S&P 500 index, according to market intelligence firm 10X Research. 

The firm estimates a 60%–70% probability that Strategy will be added to the benchmark index by December 19, 2025, provided it delivers a profitable third quarter.

The company is set to report its Q3 2025 earnings on Thursday, with analysts expecting an impressive $3.8 billion gain stemming from fair-value Bitcoin accounting. This could reignite optimism around the stock, which has seen investor sentiment weaken in recent months.

“Capitulation always feels like the end — until it quietly marks the beginning,” said 10X Research in its latest report. “The October 30 earnings release could reignite speculation around the December 5 S&P 500 inclusion decision — a scenario we assign roughly a 70% probability.” 

The firm added that while sentiment toward the stock appears “washed out,” the earnings announcement remains an “obvious catalyst” for renewed investor interest.

Market Challenges for Digital Asset Treasuries

The forecast comes amid growing scrutiny over digital asset treasuries (DATs). Many have seen their market net asset value (mNAV) ratios fall below the key threshold of 1, which limits their ability to raise new capital for further digital asset purchases.

Alongside Strategy, other DATs such as Bitmine, Metaplanet (MTPLF), Sharplink Gaming (SBET), Upexi (UPXI), and DeFi Development Corp (DFDV) have also faced similar challenges this year.

Strategy’s Bitcoin acquisitions have slowed notably. The company added only 778 BTC in October, down 78% from September’s 3,526 BTC, marking one of its smallest monthly purchases in over a year. Even so, 10X Research suggested this slowdown could represent a turning point in the market cycle, with liquidity poised to return and “outsized moves” potentially ahead.

Credit Rating and Market Outlook

Despite the optimistic forecasts, S&P Global Ratings assigned Strategy a “B-” credit rating, placing it in the speculative, non-investment grade category typically associated with junk bonds. However, analysts view this as a milestone: the first-ever S&P Global assessment of a Bitcoin-treasury-focused company.

10X Research concluded that with volatility returning and Bitcoin’s NAV premium reset, the current phase is less about bracing for downside and more about preparing for the next upward leg in the crypto and equity markets.