Trump’s Tariff Shock Spurs 2025 Recession Fears: Odds Soar Above 60%

Traders across major prediction markets are growing increasingly convinced that the U.S. economy could dip into recession next year—thanks, in large part, to President Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariff order. 

On Kalshi, a regulated prediction platform, the probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 now stands at 61%, marking a near-doubling in odds since just March 20.

Recession Bets Rise Sharply After Tariff Announcement

These figures align closely with rival platform Polymarket, where users have currently priced in a 60% chance that the U.S. will experience two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth—the standard recession definition used by the U.S. Department of Commerce.

The sudden shift in sentiment follows Trump’s April 2 executive order imposing broad tariffs on all foreign imports, escalating tensions with key trading partners and sparking panic in capital markets. The fallout has been swift: equities tumbled, volatility surged, and safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin began catching a bid.

Here’s What Pompliano Says

While the policy move drew immediate criticism from economists and investors alike, some market commentators believe it could be part of a larger political strategy. 

Notably, Anthony Pompliano, investor and co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital, suggested that Trump might be intentionally triggering market instability to push the Federal Reserve into cutting interest rates.

Pompliano pointed to the decline in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, which dropped from 4.66% in January to 4.00% by April 5, as proof that investor expectations for rate cuts are growing. If Trump’s goal is to weaken the economy just enough to force monetary easing ahead of the election cycle, it may already be working.

In an April 4 post on Truth Social, Trump didn’t shy away from pressing the Fed: “This would be a perfect time for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates.”

Such direct calls to the central bank—especially amid heightened economic uncertainty—are likely to increase pressure on policymakers navigating the delicate balance between inflation control and economic growth.