Bitcoin Hits Key Bull Market Trendline, What’s Next?

Bitcoin is currently facing a significant battle to reclaim a critical bull market trendline, which it lost for the first time in nearly a year in June. On-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant states that Bitcoin’s price action is retesting the short-term holder (STH) realized price, a move that could signal positive trends.

Bitcoin STH Activity

The activity of STH—those holding Bitcoin for 155 days or less—is an important indicator during bull markets. The combined cost basis of this cohort often forms long-term price support. Since early 2023, BTC has reclaimed the STH Realized Price twice, each time resulting in at least 30% profits.

On July 18, CryptoQuant contributor J.A. Maartunn explained that the Bitcoin price has reclaimed the STH Realized Price. Maartunn noted, “This is a positive sign because short-term holders often add to their positions when Bitcoin returns to their average cost basis, creating a support level.”

The exact level of the STH realized price varies according to different sources. Popular on-chain analytics firm Glassnode reported on July 16 that the STH realized price was $64,300. They noted a major drop in short-term holder profitability, with more than 66% of their supply moving into an unrealized loss. This suggests that many top buyers have recently seen their portfolio profitability challenged.

The $65k Level

The area around $65,000 remains an important target for Bitcoin bulls. Well-known trader and former fund manager Aksel Kibar expressed optimism:

“This is the 5th month BTC is not backing off from the strong resistance around 65K. I see this as very bullish long-term. Sticking to a resistance and no intention of selling off is usually a sign of a pending breakout.”

A Word of Caution

On daily timeframes, popular crypto trader JT indicated that BTC needs to break through several Fibonacci retracement levels currently acting as resistance to reach a new peak.

He cautioned that volume levels were notable in their decline compared to the volume seen during the recent BTC price lows near $53,000. “It has now dropped precipitously. We are now below average volume profiles,” he commented.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $64,700. It holds a trading volume of $28.46 billion, at the time of writing.