Norway Probes Possible Nobel Prize Leak After Unusual Bets on PolyMarket

Norwegian authorities have started an investigation into this year’s Nobel Peace Prize winner, Maria Corina Machado. The probe began after unusual betting activity heavily favored her before the announcement. Officials are now looking into possible information leaks or insider trading.

Unusual Nobel Prize Bets Spark Suspicion on Polymarket

The suspicious trades happened on Polymarket, a popular decentralized prediction platform. According to a report from Bloomberg, trading activity around the Nobel Peace Prize market spiked dramatically in the hours leading up to the official announcement on Friday.

For months, the odds of Maria Corina Machado winning had remained below 2% since the betting market opened in July 2025. However, in a surprising turn of events late on Thursday, October 9, trading patterns shifted sharply. 

Just before the event, Maria Corina Machado’s winning chance rose from 43% to over 70% in one hour. This sudden jump suggested that some traders might have known the Nobel Committee’s choice in advance. 

A tracking account called Polymarket Whales noticed the activity, and reports say a new account made about $90,000 in profit from the bets.

Norway Investigates Possible Nobel Prize Information Leak

The Nobel Committee in Oslo is known for keeping the names of its winners secret until the official announcement. 

Members and advisors must follow strict security rules, and any leak would be a serious violation. Norwegian authorities are now checking if someone linked to the Nobel process used secret information to make money. 

They are also reviewing Polymarket trading records to track the money and find out who profited. This development mirrors growing global concerns about insider trading and misuse of vital information. 

Similar worries have prompted action in other parts of the world. In Thailand, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently launched a public consultation on new rules to regulate utility tokens by crypto exchanges. The proposal aimed to increase transparency and reduce insider trading risks in the country’s crypto industry.

Concerns Over Prediction Platforms

The case has raised wider concerns about decentralized prediction markets. Platforms like Polymarket are praised for being open and data-based. However, they are also criticized for possibly allowing insider trading and even banned for enabling gambling.

Polymarket first gained international attention during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, when its political betting markets attracted millions of dollars in wagers. Regulators in different countries have since raised concerns about how easily confidential information could influence trading activity on such platforms.

Experts say that if the Nobel betting case is proven to involve insider trading, it could be one of the first major cases linking prediction markets to leaked award results. Many worry this case might also lead regulators to create stricter rules and demand more transparency in how these prediction platforms work.